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Title:The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Format Type:Ebook
Author:
Publisher:Random House
ISBN:1400063515
ISBN 13:
Number of Pages:401
Category:Non fiction, Economics, Business, Philosophy, Science, Psychology, Finance

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

PDF, EPUB, MOBI, TXT, DOC The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics It is unpredictable it carries a massive impact and after the fact we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable than it was .

The astonishing success of Google was a black swan so was For Nassim Nicholas Taleb black swans underlie almost everything about our world from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives .

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur Part of the answer according to Taleb is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities .

We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don t know We are therefore unable to truly estimate opportunities too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify narrate and categorize and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the impossible .

For years Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world Now in this revelatory book Taleb explains everything we know about what we don t know He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them .

Elegant startling and universal in its applications i The Black Swan i will change the way you look at the world Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer with wit irreverence and unusual stories to tell He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory .

i The Black Swan i is a landmark book itself a black swan .

The book also contains a page glossary pages of notes and a page bibliography in addition to an index

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No description available, Nassim Nicholas Taleb s landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck uncertainty probability opacity human error risk disorder and decision making in a world we don t understand in nonoverlapping and standalone books All four volumes i Antifragile The Black Swan Fooled by Randomness i and the special expanded edition of i The Bed of Procrustes i updated with more than percent new material are now together in one ebook bundle br br b ANTIFRAGILE b br br b Startling richly crammed with insights stories fine phrases and intriguing asides i The Wall Street Journal i b br br Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension many things in life benefit from disorder volatility and turmoil What Taleb has identified and calls antifragile is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish The resilient resists shocks and stays the same the antifragile gets better and better What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them Spanning politics urban planning war personal finance economic systems and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style i Antifragile i is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world br br b THE BLACK SWAN b br b b br b i The Black Swan i changed my view of how the world works Daniel Kahneman Nobel laureate b br br A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics It is unpredictable it carries a massive impact and after the fact we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable The astonishing success of Google was a black swan so was In this groundbreaking and prophetic book Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives and yet we especially the experts are blind to them br br b FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS b br b b br b i Fooled by Randomness i is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther s ninety five theses were to the Catholic Church Malcolm Gladwell i The New Yorker i b br br Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events i Fooled by Randomness i is about luck more precisely about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill the markets i Fooled by Randomness i is an irreverent eye opening and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives br br b THE BED OF PROCRUSTES b br b b br b Taleb s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems i Financial Times i b br br This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb s major ideas in ways you least expect i The Bed of Procrustes i takes its title from Greek mythology the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom Taleb plows through human illusions contrasting the classical views of courage elegance and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness philistinism and phoniness, Tre anni dopo la pubblicazione del Cigno nero un racconto filosofico acclamato in tutto il mondo Nassim Nicholas Taleb fa il bilancio della vita del suo libro L idea talebiana del Cigno nero ha conquistato milioni di lettori e fecondato la ricerca in campi molto diversi dalla filosofia alla statistica dalla sociologia alla psicologia agli studi sul clima alla medicina Meno feconda questa idea si rivelata invece in economia l area pi immediatamente vicina agli interessi dell autore Sulla crisi del e sugli economisti che dovrebbero analizzarla e curarla Taleb si sofferma in questo nuovo libro con annotazioni che hanno il sapore dell ironia e dello scetticismo E ancora una volta ribalta i sedicenti esperti di rischi che in questi tre anni hanno risposto all autore con ostilit dimostrando la loro inguaribile cecit ai Cigni neri Robustezza e fragilit riassume tre anni di vita di un idea forte in grado di modificare i nostri paradigmi mentali tre anni che hanno anche trasformato in meglio la vita dell autore Taleb ha incontrato filosofi scrittori scienziati uomini di stato lettori comuni e persino buoni economisti si confrontato con loro ne ha ascoltato conferme e obiezioni ha visto crescere e svilupparsi la sua idea nel mondo Da questi incontri nato Robustezza e fragilit il suo nuovo racconto filosofico dove fornendoci una carta topografica dell Estremistan Taleb ci insegna come muoverci in un mondo dominato dal caso e dall incertezza, b i The Bed of Procrustes i is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb s landmark Incerto series an investigation of opacity luck uncertainty probability human error risk and decision making in a world we don t understand The other books in the series are i Fooled by Randomness The Black Swan i and i Antifragile i b br br By the author of the modern classic i The Black Swan i this collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses his major ideas in ways you least expect br br i The Bed of Procrustes i takes its title from Greek mythology the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs It represents Taleb s view of modern civilization s hubristic side effects modifying humans to satisfy technology blaming reality for not fitting economic models inventing diseases to sell drugs defining intelligence as what can be tested in a classroom and convincing people that employment is not slavery br br Playful and irreverent these aphorisms will surprise you by exposing self delusions you have been living with but never recognized br br With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom Taleb plows through human illusions contrasting the classical values of courage elegance and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness philistinism and phoniness